January 30, 2009

Now, that’s a catch 22

The financial crisis that is creating a pandemonium across the globe has its origins in something very personal… the craving for excesses, the misalignment of interests, and inability to gaze over the hillock.

It resonates in the psyche of almost every primate’s mind (at least the ones on Wall Street and the likes). The trouble becomes systemic, when this psyche percolates through the system until it is endemic in the processes, the supporting ideas and the resulting actions.

Too much cash was doled out to anybody who could not refuse it (in some cases, they converted a few of the refuters too). Excesses… spiraling demand, irrational and frothy growth, ballooning inflation, subsequent fall backs, leveraged positions that faced a free fall etc. The routine…

As a consequence companies went belly up, unemployment soared, confidence shattered, families fragmented, hopes crushed. This resulted in federal banks world over realizing that sentiments and subsequently liquidity is turning out to be a severe problem. Companies were bailed out (with a few exceptions), regulatory agencies and credit assessors were pulled up, bonuses questioned etc… primarily a few feathers were ruffled.

Having said that, they went on the time tested cure, an interest rate reducing spree, handing out benefits to banks (pitted with illiquid, penny priced bad assets). The banks on the flip side, decided to park the excess funds so released with the federal banks themselves… fearing to lend it out to suspected “sub primers”.

The same banks that got rapped on their knuckles for being too liberal in lending… and then securitizing the receivables, of suspect lenders, are being prodded to loosen their purse strings and lend more freely. The banks that sported a sheepish look earlier have a constipated look at the moment. They might want to lend, but are wary of the repercussions.

Hence, we find them caught in a quandary -
· Lend - risking bleeding and triggering a repeat of their previous error
· Hold back - risking sustenance of federal magnanimity, & squeezing the markets dry

Which way will they tilt?

January 25, 2009

Change... capitalise on an opportunity

'Pick a-our selves aaup, Dust a-our selves aoff and beghin again the work of reemaking Amherica' - Barack Obama could not have put it better. The emphasis was perfect. Much has been said and a lot more written about this messiah of change. What he can very optimistically draw strength out of is the fact that we arrre staring down the barrel of a gun. We having being doing it since early 2007. What he does may or may not work. The repercussions of his acts, are ours to bear... and we accept that. Because, what we do know for certain is, the current state of affairs is certainly not benefiting us in any which way.


There is a lot of resistance that one faces whilst change beckons. The change of the kind we require, involves wiping the slate clean. There is this sense of liberation in starting afresh... virginal pride, hope, energy and fear.


Having said that, change needs commitment. Commitment, as Terry Starbucker mentions, is very liberating. It sets you free from the tyranny of your internal critic. Allows you to be at peace with yourself (a trait many desire).

When pushed to the edge of a cliff... look out... not to judge whether to jump, but to judge how to jump. Change, the way it unfurls, is at some levels, not an option.

Update: here is something that I stumbled upon Chris Brogans blog:

Its a grab from Ani Difranco's work:

Buildings and bridges

are made to bend in the wind

to withstand the world,

that’s what it takes

All that steel and stone

is no match for the air, my friend

what doesn’t bend breaks

what doesn’t bend breaks

Malleability and Ductility are a 'must have'

January 24, 2009

Rear-view

All and sundry at my workplace, seemed to be nonchalant about the current financial mess that we find ourselves in the midst of. I allocated this bravado to an intense need to appear alienated from trouble and almost be elevated above the problem, attitude. An immense need to portray that "we knew this was overdue".

Guess what proved my sentiment wrong... not their stoic stance about having acquired worldly wisdom, but the fact that they were nervous. Underneath that nonchalance I smelt fear. They are not nervous about the unknown... but wary about the known... ‘cause, they see dim times ahead, owing to their 'millennium' experience.

The tech bust that unraveled in 2000-2002, gobbled up and spit out a lot more 'respectable' enterprises than the current crisis has. For instance, at its peak the tech quotient on S&P was 32%... a lot more than the 22% the financial companies have on S&P currently. In addition, the comparable in terms of market erosion is 72% for the 'Finance' domain companies versus the 82% erosion faced by the tech companies in 2002.

That these guys have seen and managed to stay afloat, in spite of being present in one of the most tumultuous phases of revolution... the IT revolution, is considerable learning. Their story is still strong and the morals are also enviable... the perspective however has gotten altered. So to the Mr. Shahs/Mehtas/shahs again/Desais etc... we understand that you've seen worse... however, this time the repercussions are not only being felt far and wide but are also causing the fear to run deep.

Comparing two collapsing empires is not an exercise to purely reconstruct but a measure to preserve for posterity and hopefully learn. On that point... in spite of having some common spine, viz. greed, lack of foresight and unequal distribution of wealth... each crisis unraveled has brought along a flavor of its own.

We have felt the monetary impact of the excesses of the recent past... what follows in '09, is the economic impact. Demand shrinkage, introduction to deflation etc. A new world order is on the cards. Let’s welcome it with a rational mind.

January 6, 2009

The unsaid 'verses'

These conspire to inspire
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To be born again…. First you have to die

To land upon the bosomy earth…..First one needs to fly

How to ever smile again….if first you don’t cry

How to win the darling’s love, mister….without a sigh


------------------- the star! (A protege of the forbidden text, might recognise this)

The voice cannot carry the tongue and the lips that give it wings.... Alone must it seek the ether.

------------------- almustafa (the wanderer, the wise, the ship wrecked, the sooth-sayer, the &$#&^@*
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Cannot and certainly shall not pledge even an ounce of "proprietorship' over the prose above.

Must and certainly will highlight the enormous influence of these very renditions on thy-self.

Snap-shot